The Killer Quarter

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As the blanket defence has become mainstream in Gaelic football, and to a lesser extent, hurling, the value of moving the ball quickly from one end of the field to the other appears to have become extremely significant, especially on kick-outs in football. More and more we’re realising that the figures in Zonal Kick-out Analysis become more and more consistent and predictable when you further break the six times/zones into how quickly the ball was moved forward upon winning the kick-out.

How it Works.

It’s new territory for us as statisticians, so we need more data, before we come up with a more definitive system, but for now, it works on the basis that moving the ball a quarter of the field forward from the point of winning a kick-out, while breaching the opposition, within 17.5 seconds of the ball going dead on a short kick-out, within 19.5 seconds on a kick-out to the half back line and within 21 seconds to midfield, constitutes breaching the Killer Quarter.

Based on figures from a handful of matches and observation from swathes of matches, breaching this “Killer Quarter” constitutes a hugely increased possibility of turning a kick-out into a score, and by reverse, not conceding a score on the turnover (which there won’t be if your team scores).