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Estimated Value

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Rationale

Overall analysis of a team’s performance by management teams and analysts tends to weigh heavily on score-lines. Managers tend to throw the book at teams and reshuffle their packs purely based on score-lines, when, in fact, poor shooting or one side taking three 50/50 goal chances out of three while the other side have missed three out of three, to give an extreme example, may well have been the biggest significant factor. The foundations of a side’s play might not have been poor at all.

How It works

There are a number of different methodologies for this, but while it’s less scientific than some, the formula GaaProstats considers to be the most accurate, and therefore uses, is to arbitrarily put a percentage probability figure of conversion on every attempt on goal or point based on the situation, conditions and prior knowledge of the player (where it exists).

So for example, if Team A had five point chances considered to be 90% shots that would be an estimated value of 5 x 0.9 = 4.5 points, from those five points. If, for example they had another ten shots were 50% shots, their Estimated Value would be 10x 05 = 5 points. And if they had two goal chances considered 50% of three points (1.5 points) plus the added 15% possibility of scoring a point accidentally/on the rebound/from an ensuing “45”, that would b2 2 x 1.8 = 3.16 points Estimated Value on those goal attempts.

That would total and EV (estimated Value) of 12.66 points in the game or 1 goals and 9.6 points.

Now let’s say that Team B came in with exactly the same amount of chances and the exact same EV but Team A scored 2-13 and Team B scored 0-10, you’d e considering that of the two sides were to play again, that there’d be no basis to think that Team A would be any more likely to win the next time.

More significantly, from a managerial point of view, assuming the EV hadn’t over estimated the ability of the players shooting, but represented a random lower than average score conversion rate on the day, you wouldn’t see any reason to necessarily make huge amendments to the team.